Belen, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

838
FXUS65 KABQ 092352 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
552 PM MDT Wed Apr 9 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 538 PM MDT Wed Apr 9 2025

- Warming temperatures and dry conditions will continue through
  the end of the week. Temperatures will be 10 to 20 degrees above
  normal and around record values come mid to late this week. The
  hottest day will be Saturday with widespread 80s and 90s.

- Minor heat-related impacts are possible throughout the week for
  those outside for an extended period of time without taking
  proper precautions.

- Breezy to windy conditions on Saturday and Sunday with stronger
  gusts for northeast areas. Single digit relative humidities and
  warm temperatures will also contribute to widespread critical
  fire weather conditions.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 205 PM MDT Wed Apr 9 2025

Outside a brief cooldown across eastern NM tomorrow due to a weak
backdoor front, temperatures will be well above normal to around
record levels through the weekend! Southwest and west winds pick up
areawide Saturday with windy conditions across the north central
areas and the northeast and central highlands Sunday. These stronger
winds will increase the risk for rapid fire spread after days of dry
and warm conditions. Cooler early next week behind a backdoor cold
front with rain chances possibly returning mainly across the higher
terrain and eastern areas on Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 205 PM MDT Wed Apr 9 2025

An unseasonably strong 589dm H5 ridge (+2.7 NAEFS stdev) near the
Baja region will build eastward toward NM thru the end of the week.
This ridge along with very dry air and large-scale subsidence will
lead to well above normal temps with mostly sunny skies Thursday.
Meanwhile, the next backdoor cold front will slide into eastern NM
Thursday as an upper level trough pulls away from the northern Great
Plains. This front will move beneath the ridge and trend max temps a
few degrees cooler over eastern NM along with breezy north/northeast
winds. Forecast confidence is high that the front will move west to
the central mt chain Thursday evening with gap winds developing into
the RGV. The NBM median max wind gust at KABQ shows 24kt Thursday
night and Friday morning while the latest MOS has sustained winds
closer to 20kt. The NBM 90th percentile wind gust at KABQ is 32kt so
overall this is very likely to be a relatively weak gap wind event.
Min temps Thursday night will remain above normal with continued
mixing more into the night for central and eastern NM behind the
front.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 205 PM MDT Wed Apr 9 2025

The ridge of high pressure mentioned in the short term moves
squarely overhead on Friday resulting in even warmer temperatures
across western and central NM with highs 15 to 20 degrees above
average. With 500 mb heights and 700 mb temperatures at to just
above the climatological max for this time of year, high
temperatures records will be challenged or broken for many
locations. Eastern NM warms back up to the upper 70s to mid 80s
thanks to the increasing heights and some downsloping from south to
southwest flow. The ridge shifts over the Great Plains and central
U.S. with increasing downslope southwest and west flow moving over
the state south of a trough moving into the Pacific NW. This
downslope flow will further increase  This will be the warmest day
of the forecast period areawide with highs 15 to 25 degrees above
average for mid April! Records will be challenged, broken or smashed
areawide! With temps in the 80s for most and low to mid 90s across
southern and east central areas, heat safety and proper hydration
will be need to kept in mind for those spending a prolonged period
outside. Southwest and west winds will be breezy across the
highlands due to strengthening 500-700 mb flow of 25 to 35 kts. This
will result in some wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph across the west
central highlands, north central NM and northeast NM resulting in
the risk for rapid fire spread across these areas. For Sunday, winds
increase further, especially across the highlands, as stronger 500-
700 mb winds of 35 to 50 kts moves overhead south of the upper low
moving across the northern Rockies and Great Plains. Winds could get
to Wind Advisory criteria across the northeast and central highlands
Sunday afternoon. Temperatures cool down around 4 to 6 degrees
across western and central NM due to lowering 500 mb heights around
576 to 579 dam 500 mb heights with less cooling across eastern NM
due to the downsloping west winds. Temperatures will be just under
record highs across western and central NM and potentially break
record highs across the eastern plains. With the winds and near
record highs along with several days of very dry weather, rapid fire
spread will be possible for most areas.

The upper low deepens as it moves over the Great Lakes Monday. A
building surface high in it`s wake over the northern Rockies and
High Plains will send a backdoor cold front through eastern NM
during the morning hours and potentially through the gaps of the
central mountain chain midday. This backdoor front will allow
temperatures to cool back down slightly below average across eastern
NM and around 5 to 10 degrees above average across central and
western NM. Some rain chances could return to eastern areas next
Tuesday due to return flow from the Gulf behind the backdoor front
combining with lift from an weakening upper low/ open wave trough
approaching from Arizona. Temperatures will be slightly above
average across western and central NM and slightly below average
across eastern NM.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 538 PM MDT Wed Apr 9 2025

A backdoor front will slide into the eastern plains tonight with a
wind shift east of the central mountain chain but probably not
much in the way of gusts until Thursday. The front will cool
temperatures on the eastern plains a few to several degrees below
today`s readings. Meanwhile, a ridge of high pressure will build
over NM from the west producing near record high temperatures west
of the continental divide on Thursday afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 205 PM MDT Wed Apr 9 2025

An upper level ridge building over the region thru Friday will
create tranquil weather with well above normal temps, very low
humidity for central and western NM, and relatively light winds. A
backdoor cold front will move into eastern NM Thursday with humidity
trending higher thru Friday night. A period of gap winds is also
likely in the Rio Grande Valley with gusts up to 40 mph possible
around ABQ.

Strong southwest winds will develop on Saturday with much greater
coverage of single digit humidity. The combination of strong winds
with very low humidity and record heat will elevate the risk for
critical to locally extreme fire weather Saturday and Sunday. The
recent rainfall and heavy snow over the region may have little
impact on fuel moisture by this weekend given several consecutive
days with very low humidity and poor to fair recoveries for most of
the area. However, the expected green up from the recent moisture
may mitigate the overall threat for fire spread.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  36  80  39  86 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  31  76  32  80 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  33  75  35  78 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  29  80  30  83 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  36  76  37  79 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  29  79  31  83 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  39  78  40  81 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  46  78  48  81 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  42  77  42  80 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  30  84  32  86 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  30  89  32  91 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  31  70  33  73 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  50  76  49  75 /   0   5   0   0
Pecos...........................  44  74  42  75 /   0  10   0   5
Cerro/Questa....................  35  71  36  74 /   0   5   5   5
Red River.......................  26  66  29  63 /   0  10  10  10
Angel Fire......................  25  66  27  70 /   0  10   5  10
Taos............................  29  74  34  77 /   0   5   5   5
Mora............................  35  70  35  74 /   0  10   5   5
Espanola........................  39  81  40  83 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  46  77  45  76 /   0   5   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  41  80  44  80 /   0   5   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  50  81  49  83 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  48  82  49  85 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  44  85  46  87 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  44  83  45  85 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  40  85  42  88 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  44  83  45  86 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  40  84  41  87 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  40  84  41  86 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  39  84  39  87 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  48  79  49  81 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  46  82  47  85 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  46  87  49  89 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  49  77  49  77 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  46  80  47  79 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  46  79  46  80 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  35  78  35  81 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  38  72  38  76 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  46  78  46  79 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  40  78  42  79 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  47  82  49  82 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  48  76  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  42  66  40  71 /   0   5   0   5
Raton...........................  40  72  38  78 /   0   5   0   5
Springer........................  38  72  38  78 /   0   5   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  39  72  39  74 /   0   5   0   0
Clayton.........................  42  71  41  76 /   5   0   0   0
Roy.............................  42  71  42  74 /   0   5   0   5
Conchas.........................  44  78  45  81 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  49  76  47  78 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  43  77  41  79 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  45  80  43  79 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  43  80  42  80 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  44  81  44  80 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  49  86  47  84 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  45  82  46  81 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  46  82  46  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...44

Please note: The SYNOPSIS section will be terminated on or about Wednesday, April 9.